DC is currently 5 years into a 15-year affordable housing plan, developed by the Comprehensive Housing Strategy Task Force. At the 1/3 mark, and given the profound economic changes during those 5 years, the Brookings Institute has examined how the plan has unfolded and what progress had been made:

The Task Force, created in 2003, conducted its research and outreach in 2004 and 2005. Amid a booming housing market, its concerns centered on preserving affordable housing for low-income residents, channeling market forces to create affordable and workforce housing in addition to high-end housing, supporting the development of mixed-income neighborhoods, and reducing the concentration of poverty. Based on the city?s strong housing market and healthy revenue picture at the time, the report recommended doubling annual expenditures on housing, drawing in large part on revenue generated by sales of residential and commercial property.

Since then, the global, national, and local economic picture has dramatically changed. Although the Washington region weathered the housing collapse and recession better than other areas across the country, the economic downturn caused serious distress throughout the city and contributed to Depression-era unemployment rates in some neighborhoods. Property values were relatively stable, yet sales fell dramatically. Tax revenues have plummeted and the city is facing years of budget austerity even as the need for city services increases.

In a guest post for the DC Fiscal Policy Institute, research analyst Benjamin Orr evaluated DC’s accomplishments in six areas and the results are not too encouraging. For example, while DC did succeed in raising the home ownership rate to 45%, ownership only increased among households with an annual income above $75,000. And as of 2010, the Local Rent Supplement Program is currently 4,000 families and $60 million behind its goal due primarily to funding constraints. Mr. Orr then summarized Brooking’s new recommendations, which focus on “short-term, relatively low-cost actions that can be implemented quickly and will put the city in a better position to move aggressively on affordable housing,” and concludes with the following:

New economic conditions require that the city rethink its housing policy and strategy. After five years of housing policy informed by the CHSTF report, and facing a different type of economic environment, the city should refine and redefine its housing strategy.

Undeniably, the report was authored in an utterly different climate and moving forward under its suppositions is unlikely to yield further progress on key objectives. That said, the Brookings study does raise a thorny question: how does a city or county develop a long-term plan for affordable housing? The housing market, even in a small and distinct region, can shift radically over a year. Yet the creation of accessible homes and rental options certainly takes longer than a year, as this 15-year strategy clearly indicates. So to what extent is it feasible to plan for the future, and to what extent must such plans continue to be revised and revisited?